We Bet the Majors: A guide to picks and bets for the Open Championship - 2023

At Golf Marauders, we like to bet the majors. And this weekend we have The Open Championship, or as I call it, The British Open. Having a lil action out there always makes these tournaments a little more exiting. We will be offering up some picks and our best bets. To make these picks I have a multi prong approach that will be shared in this post. First, I will summarize all of the picks that the so-called experts are making from various websites, then I will display my research by displaying the stat rankings that I am using, and lastly have the BRASS to win a tournament like this. Basically, this can be a one stop shop to get the information needed to make some British Open Picks.

What Others Are Sayin’

Whether you are looking for validation or looking for golfers to fade (if you are a hater), it is always good to see what everyone else is saying or picking for a tournament. I see a few trends in here, Rory and Scottie are the clear favorites, but there is plenty of respect out there for the top 10 players; everyone seems to love the value of Hatton, Min Woo Lee, and Tommy Fleetwood. On the flipside the ones noticeably missing from anyone’s list: Finau, Homa, and Hideki; then there is also not a whole lotta love for Rahm, Cantley, Brooks, and Clark. All big names that maybe worth looking at for DraftKings considering they might be underexposed. Anyways, here is a table to draw your own conclusions.

A summary of best plays for The Open Championship

My Inputs

The first thing that we need to recognize is that 9 of the 10 most recent winners have finished in the top 20 in a previous British Open. I organized all of the golfers that have placed in the top 20 since 2014, Colin Morikawa was the only recent previous winner that won the British without such a finish in his background.

Then I want to couple that with who is playing well, so I looked at the most recent stats to see who’s game is sharp this season. For this championship I am going with the guys that are the best hitters and ball strikers, mainly looking at the total shots gained, short game, ball striking, and total driving that blends accuracy and distance. The course is not overly long, so I am not plugging in driving distance, but it is captured in the total driving stat.

Since I am getting all my stats from the PGA Tour site, I do not have LIV stats which will prevent me from finding any LIV longshots, but will still going to be in on the LIV studs (Lookin at you Cameron Smith).

Below is the ranking data I used to find the players that I see as undervalued stat wise for betting purposes.

Summary of top 20 and top 10 British Open finishes since 2014

Stat summary sorted by Total Shots Gained

Players With Brass

There are some golfers that just have that “Je Ne Sais Quoi.” It is this formula of mental fortitude, icy veins, and brass balls. It is a question of: who in this modern field can hit a chip shot like Tiger at the 2005 Masters, or fire a last round heater like Jack Nicklaus in the 1986 Masters. Or even a 203 yard 2 Iron like Rory just did at the Scottish Open to win on the 18th yesterday. On the flip side, who is at risk of having a last round meltdown like LIV CEO Greg “The Shark” Norman.

Using this summary of winners and top ten finishes in the last 6 years of Majors, I am looking for past winners and golfers that have finished in the top 10 in either the Masters or the U.S. Open this year. This obviously brings the top of this chart in play: Brooksy, Rahm, DJ, Xander, Spieth, and Rory. The others that I like on this list to signify the Brass to win, is Cameron Smith (defending champ and just has that ice in the veins feel), Victor Hovland (young gun with the chill attitude and will to win), and Patrick Reed (so competitive that he can’t have friends on tour, and a top ten finish this year perks my interest a bit).

My Picks and Best Bets

Analyzing and evaluating all of the information above, I am ready to make my picks. Recent form or golf play, past Open results, and a sprinkle of Brassy golfers are the variables I am weighting the most. I am going to fade the two favorites, Rory and Scottie. That might be a dumb move, but I like going against the grain and it seems like it will be tough for Rory to win two weeks in a row and Scottie is not a great putter, which will hurt on a Links course. So here they are:

Cameron Smith: +1600 to win; he checks the main boxes: brassy, a top 10 finish this year at a Major, and is a lights out putter.

Jon Rahm: +1200 to win; he did not enter the Scottish Open, I am thinking he used this time to get his driver good since that has been giving him some issues as of late; besides that, he crushes the stat book and has shown us his Brass multiple times.

Viktor Hovland: +2200 to win and +240 to finish top 10: My favorite play and I will play both of these lines. He has been at the top consistently, checks my boxes, and is so likeable. He will also anchor my DraftKings lineups.

Patrick Cantlay: +300 to finish in the top 10; this might seem crazy after missing the cut this weekend in Scotland, but it was right at the line and he has finished in the top 20 twice and the top 10 once at the Open Championship. He also finished tied for 14th at the Masters and the US Open this year, he is has been flirting with that top 10 finish, and he may do it this weekend. He does everything well, I like riding this horse this weekend.

Justin Rose: +490 to finish top 10; this pick is mainly based on a very strong track record in these British Opens, plus he is decent at everything, a well rounded golfer that performs well on these links courses that really never know what you might need on any given day.

Min Woo Lee +490 to finish top 10; Everyone loves him for this tournament so I will join in on the fun and throw some cash on him. He is also a top 25 stat guy, why not take a flyer.

A couple of possible DraftKings Lineups:

DISCLAIMER

I am an idiot and if you blindly follow my advice, then you are also an idiot. Also, this was mainly put together on 7.17.23, verify injuries or changes in lines etc. as the week goes on. One more thing, weather can be a bitch and I have not done any weather analysis at this point. Also, if you click on my DraftKings Link, we each get a $20 Bonus Bet.

REFERENCE 1: Fanduel Odds as of 7.17.23 REFERENCE 2: DraftKings Salary

We Bet the Majors: A guide to making picks and bets for the Open Championship - 2023

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