Josef 7/29/23 Josef 7/29/23

Justin Thomas Continues to Struggle; Is Getting Hitched to Blame?

Justin Thomas has been a top golfer in the world for a number of years, however is world golf ranking has fallen drastically this year and appears to be in a free fall. We think this fall is due to getting married last fall.

This past weekend, I received a text “Dude, Justin Thomas registered a 82 today at the Open.” This was sad to see as he is one of my favorite players. I even mentioned him in my post about Erin Hills and he is just a relatable golfer with a good sense of humor and one of the best instagram handles of any professional golfer.

Anybody that is a golf fan has grown to appreciate the golf game of Justin Thomas, he became a pro in 2014 and within two years; he was a contender in any tournament that entered. He has relatable sound bites and a seemingly a genuinely decent dude. Just today they showed him bring an 11 year old kid out to hit a shot during his practice round at the TPC Twin Cities. How can you root against this guy. I do need to throw in though that I have to give him a pass on his Bama affiliation; I get it, he went there. But it is in my blood to dislike Bama, the Yankees, and Ohio State. Check out this youtube mash up of his reactions to his different golf shots.

But now something is off, a disruption in the force; Justin Thomas has been struggling or in some sort of major golf slump. I have heard a few theories, he needs a new coach (and leave his dad), or he is fine, he’s just had a few bad rounds; but I am not so sure. I mean he is currently projected to not even make the Fed Ex championship this year! His spot on the Ryder Cup is certainly at risk as well this year as he has missed the cut in 4 of his last 6 tournaments. Which leads me to a hypothesis that is a bit outside the box. I think the drop in performance is due to his 2022 marriage and I think it may get worse (his golf game) before it gets better.

I am not speaking ill of marriage, but I think we can all agree it is a change in lifestyle and that can certainly alter focus and headspace. I also have a theory that pro golfers have the hottest wives of all pro athletes, with QB’s from the SEC in a close second; but I digress. As an avid fantasy sports participant, I have noticed how relationships can effect sports performance: like when Tony Romo was dating Jessica Simpson or anytime Aaron Rodgers is in new celebrity relationship. And I would argue that golf needs the most focus and routine (check my previous piece on morning golf routines) of any sport. And after remembering seeing that Justin Thomas was recently married (via Intstagram), it made me think that this new marriage could be the culprit to his poor golf performance. To test this hypothesis I created a database that logged annual world golf rankings and then compared them to when a golfer got hitched. I used July rankings of each year as a proxy to decipher peak season form. And what I found supported my hypothesis.

Evidence Support Number 1: Justin Spieth

Jordan Spieth sees a downturn in performance the years after he weds.

Justin Spieth profiles very much like JT as he burst on the golf scene and was very good almost right away. Jordan won 3 majors with is last one coming in 2017, the year before he was wedded, And as you look into his world rankings you see that in 2019 he starts to really trend down in performance and bottoming in 2020; and finally starts to recover by 2021 and may be almost all the back now in 2023. This can be concerning for JT, as this graph tells me that it may get worse for JT before it gets better; on the bright side, Jordan was able to make the adjustments and after two years of down years.

Evidence Support Number 2: Rickie Fowler

Rickie Fowlers world golf rankings pre and post wedding.

Rickie Fowler is another professional golfer that is showing a drop off in performance after getting married, in 2019. Another fan favorite known for his unique attire and relatable personality. Fowler has never achieved the same level of success as Thomas or Spieth, but still he has won multiple PGA Tour, though he has yet to secure a major championship win. In Rickie’s case he was married in 2019 and then immediately starts a three year down trend where he bottomed with a world ranking of, gulp; 152. So a three year skid post marriage before he finally turns his game back around and I suspect will get back closer to the top 10 how he has been playing this seeing.

There are plenty of other examples of golfer having this sort of drop in golf performance after tying the knot or getting into a new relationship. But showing Fowler and Spieth seemed most relevant as they are in the same era and have had similar trajectories.

Tiger Woods the Goat - A Reference

Tiger Woulds retains dominance through 2004 marriage, but slips a bit post going through one of the worst public divorces in history.

I thought it would be worthwhile to show Tiger Wood’s early career world golf rankings, and no surprise that getting married in 2004 had no effect on his golf performance. So it is possible to maintain focus on the sport of golf even with major life events. However, the drive and will to not only succeed but to dominate is maybe a 1 in a million, we are all just lucky to have been able to watch it. Tiger famously had a very ugly divorce and public blow up of his sex life (no need to go into it here), but that did have an effect on his performance dropping all the way to a world golf ranking of 23 after his divorce. In true goat fashion, he recovered back to 3 and then first again in the world in short order. The next chapter of his world rankings were largely driven by his injuries so those are not relevant for this.

Conclusion

I hate to say it but after looking at how other golfers in Justin Thomas’s peer group have performed post marriage, signs are pointing that Justin is in something more than just a slump. JT has made a major change in lifestyle and this in all likelihood is creating a prolonged downtrend in performance. I can’t say why these happen, but you can have some fun drawing your own your conclusion’s. Signs are also pointing to JT likely not coming out of this post wedding dip until the 2025 season. Potentially he recovers earlier, but most take two years. Of course we will still root for Justin Thomas and want to see him playing on Sunday, but I would keep Justin out of your Draftkings line-ups for the foreseeable future.

I did not mention Dustin Johnson in this post but I want to briefly mention that Dustin married Paulina Gretzky last fall as well and we have seen his performance drop off as well. I am not convinced that it would be as big of a concern for his golf game considering him and Paulina have been the Kurt Russell and Goldie Hawn of golf couples; unwed bliss with kids. But maybe this change his affecting him too. It would be wise to see how things progress from him as well. And let’s all hope Viktor Hovland stays single for enough time to win some majors!

Josef 7/17/23 Josef 7/17/23

We Bet the Majors: A guide to making picks and bets for the Open Championship - 2023

It all begins with an idea.

At Golf Marauders, we like to bet the majors. And this weekend we have The Open Championship, or as I call it, The British Open. Having a lil action out there always makes these tournaments a little more exiting. We will be offering up some picks and our best bets. To make these picks I have a multi prong approach that will be shared in this post. First, I will summarize all of the picks that the so-called experts are making from various websites, then I will display my research by displaying the stat rankings that I am using, and lastly have the BRASS to win a tournament like this. Basically, this can be a one stop shop to get the information needed to make some British Open Picks.

What Others Are Sayin’

Whether you are looking for validation or looking for golfers to fade (if you are a hater), it is always good to see what everyone else is saying or picking for a tournament. I see a few trends in here, Rory and Scottie are the clear favorites, but there is plenty of respect out there for the top 10 players; everyone seems to love the value of Hatton, Min Woo Lee, and Tommy Fleetwood. On the flipside the ones noticeably missing from anyone’s list: Finau, Homa, and Hideki; then there is also not a whole lotta love for Rahm, Cantley, Brooks, and Clark. All big names that maybe worth looking at for DraftKings considering they might be underexposed. Anyways, here is a table to draw your own conclusions.

A summary of best plays for The Open Championship

My Inputs

The first thing that we need to recognize is that 9 of the 10 most recent winners have finished in the top 20 in a previous British Open. I organized all of the golfers that have placed in the top 20 since 2014, Colin Morikawa was the only recent previous winner that won the British without such a finish in his background.

Then I want to couple that with who is playing well, so I looked at the most recent stats to see who’s game is sharp this season. For this championship I am going with the guys that are the best hitters and ball strikers, mainly looking at the total shots gained, short game, ball striking, and total driving that blends accuracy and distance. The course is not overly long, so I am not plugging in driving distance, but it is captured in the total driving stat.

Since I am getting all my stats from the PGA Tour site, I do not have LIV stats which will prevent me from finding any LIV longshots, but will still going to be in on the LIV studs (Lookin at you Cameron Smith).

Below is the ranking data I used to find the players that I see as undervalued stat wise for betting purposes.

Summary of top 20 and top 10 British Open finishes since 2014

Stat summary sorted by Total Shots Gained

Players With Brass

There are some golfers that just have that “Je Ne Sais Quoi.” It is this formula of mental fortitude, icy veins, and brass balls. It is a question of: who in this modern field can hit a chip shot like Tiger at the 2005 Masters, or fire a last round heater like Jack Nicklaus in the 1986 Masters. Or even a 203 yard 2 Iron like Rory just did at the Scottish Open to win on the 18th yesterday. On the flip side, who is at risk of having a last round meltdown like LIV CEO Greg “The Shark” Norman.

Using this summary of winners and top ten finishes in the last 6 years of Majors, I am looking for past winners and golfers that have finished in the top 10 in either the Masters or the U.S. Open this year. This obviously brings the top of this chart in play: Brooksy, Rahm, DJ, Xander, Spieth, and Rory. The others that I like on this list to signify the Brass to win, is Cameron Smith (defending champ and just has that ice in the veins feel), Victor Hovland (young gun with the chill attitude and will to win), and Patrick Reed (so competitive that he can’t have friends on tour, and a top ten finish this year perks my interest a bit).

My Picks and Best Bets

Analyzing and evaluating all of the information above, I am ready to make my picks. Recent form or golf play, past Open results, and a sprinkle of Brassy golfers are the variables I am weighting the most. I am going to fade the two favorites, Rory and Scottie. That might be a dumb move, but I like going against the grain and it seems like it will be tough for Rory to win two weeks in a row and Scottie is not a great putter, which will hurt on a Links course. So here they are:

Cameron Smith: +1600 to win; he checks the main boxes: brassy, a top 10 finish this year at a Major, and is a lights out putter.

Jon Rahm: +1200 to win; he did not enter the Scottish Open, I am thinking he used this time to get his driver good since that has been giving him some issues as of late; besides that, he crushes the stat book and has shown us his Brass multiple times.

Viktor Hovland: +2200 to win and +240 to finish top 10: My favorite play and I will play both of these lines. He has been at the top consistently, checks my boxes, and is so likeable. He will also anchor my DraftKings lineups.

Patrick Cantlay: +300 to finish in the top 10; this might seem crazy after missing the cut this weekend in Scotland, but it was right at the line and he has finished in the top 20 twice and the top 10 once at the Open Championship. He also finished tied for 14th at the Masters and the US Open this year, he is has been flirting with that top 10 finish, and he may do it this weekend. He does everything well, I like riding this horse this weekend.

Justin Rose: +490 to finish top 10; this pick is mainly based on a very strong track record in these British Opens, plus he is decent at everything, a well rounded golfer that performs well on these links courses that really never know what you might need on any given day.

Min Woo Lee +490 to finish top 10; Everyone loves him for this tournament so I will join in on the fun and throw some cash on him. He is also a top 25 stat guy, why not take a flyer.

A couple of possible DraftKings Lineups:

DISCLAIMER

I am an idiot and if you blindly follow my advice, then you are also an idiot. Also, this was mainly put together on 7.17.23, verify injuries or changes in lines etc. as the week goes on. One more thing, weather can be a bitch and I have not done any weather analysis at this point. Also, if you click on my DraftKings Link, we each get a $20 Bonus Bet.

REFERENCE 1: Fanduel Odds as of 7.17.23 REFERENCE 2: DraftKings Salary